Wellbeing Nutrition · Forecast vs Consumption

Forecast vs Consumption

Units, across D2C, Amazon, Flipkart and Q-Com & other marketplaces. Consumption % = actual ÷ forecast.

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Channel-wise, month on month

ForecastActual consumption

Consumption % trend by channel

What the channels say

!Q-Com is the core miss. Forecast raised +80% (109k → 196k) while consumption fell −26% (91k → 68k). Consumption % slid 84 → 62 → 34%; 129k units unconsumed in Sep.
↑Amazon rebounded in Sep. Consumption doubled MoM (52k → 106k, +102%) and it became the #1 channel at 44% of Sep volume. Consumption % back to 76% after a 47% August.
↓D2C was the most accurate channel (104% Jul, 98% Aug) but dipped to 77% in Sep as consumption fell −22% MoM on a flat forecast.
·Flipkart is marginal at under 1% of volume, and fell to 28% of forecast in Sep (831 of 2,983 units).
≠Forecasts are chasing growth that isn't showing up. Total forecast rose every month while consumption fell every month, so the gap widened from 49k to 184k units.

Channel × product type, month on month

≥110% over90–110 on plan70–90 under<70% miss– no forecast

Each cell = consumption % (actual ÷ forecast) with actual / forecast units underneath. Read across a row to see how one product type moves month on month in every channel. Hover a cell for exact units.

Product type-wise, month on month

≥110% over90–110 on plan70–90 under<70% miss

Product type	Jul · actual / fcst	Aug · actual / fcst	Sep · actual / fcst	Trend	Actual Jul→Sep

Sorted by 3-month consumption. Trend: grey dashed = forecast, blue = actual. Others: Veg Collagen, Shilajit, Accessories, Pet Melts, LIQ, Marvel Melts, ACV LIQ, Skin Fuel Pro, Disney Melts.

What the product types say

≠SLOW (40% of Sep volume) is steady, the forecast isn't. Consumption grew +7% (90k → 97k) but forecast grew +37%, so consumption % fell 77 → 61%.
↓Whey Protein and Effervescent are in clear degrowth. Whey −33% (21.0k → 14.2k) and Effervescent −58% (22.9k → 9.7k), both at ~26–27% of an increased forecast.
↓Melts down −15% (58.6k → 49.8k) against a +43% forecast; consumption % 89 → 53%.
↑Hydration is the breakout. Consumption +122% (6.6k → 14.7k), running at 190% of forecast. Fiber also over-consumes at 189% in Sep.
=Collagen holds at ~28–30k a month; consumption % 94 → 71% only because forecast was raised.
×Tail to review: Skin Fuel Pro (15 units vs 2,251 forecast) and ACV LIQ (18%) are close to non-moving.

Recommended actions

Reset Q-Com, Whey, Effervescent and Melts forecasts to the trailing 3-month actual run-rate.
Top up Hydration and Fiber to avoid stock-outs.
Plan liquidation for Skin Fuel Pro and ACV LIQ inventory.

SKU-level data

Search Channel Product type Category Status in Sep

Click a column header to sort. Numbers are units. Full data is also in the data folder: the original Excel file and sku_data.csv (one row per SKU, month and channel).

How to read this summary

1 · Compare the two bars

Grey is what we planned to sell (forecast). Blue is what actually sold (consumption). When blue is shorter than grey, stock is left over.

2 · Look at the % chip

It tells you how much of the plan was actually sold. 100% means we sold exactly what we planned. Green is good, red means we planned far more than we sold, purple means we sold more than planned.

3 · Follow the trend

▲ green means sales grew from July to September, ▼ red means they fell. A falling blue line under a rising grey line is the warning sign: we keep planning more while selling less.

Terms used

JAS: July, August, September 2026: the three months covered.
Forecast: The number of units we planned to sell in a month. Inventory and production are planned on this number.
Actual / Consumption: The number of units that actually sold (were consumed) in that channel in that month.
Consumption %: Actual ÷ Forecast × 100. Called "Consp. Ratio" in the source sheet. 100% = plan met exactly; 50% = only half of the planned units sold.
Over (≥110%): Sold more than planned. Good demand, but risk of running out of stock.
On plan (90–110%): Sales close to the forecast. The plan is accurate.
Under (70–90%): Sold somewhat less than planned. Some extra stock building up.
Miss (<70%): Sold much less than planned. Excess inventory risk; forecast needs to come down.
Unconsumed / Gap: Forecast − Actual. Units we planned for but did not sell.
MoM: Month on month: comparing one month with the month before (e.g. Sep vs Aug).
Actual Jul→Sep: % change in units sold from July to September. ▲ = growth, ▼ = degrowth.
Growth / Degrowth: Sales going up / sales going down over time.
Share of volume: A channel's (or product's) units sold as a % of all units sold across the four channels.
Run-rate: Average units sold per month recently. Used as a realistic base for the next forecast.
Trendline / sparkline: The small line in each row: grey dashed = forecast, blue = actual, from July (left) to September (right).
SKU: Stock keeping unit: the code for one specific product and pack (e.g. SNMULUNI50). The Data tab lists every SKU.
k: Thousand units. 96.7k = 96,700 units.
Stock-out: Running out of a product before new stock arrives, so sales are lost.
Liquidation: Clearing slow-moving stock through offers, bundles or discounts before it expires.

Channels

D2C: Direct to consumer: our own website and app.
Amazon: Sales on the Amazon marketplace.
Flipkart: Sales on the Flipkart marketplace.
Q-Com & others: Quick-commerce apps (fast home delivery) plus other online marketplaces, shown together as one channel in the source sheet.
Not included: Retail (offline stores) and Export are in the source file but left out of this summary.

Product types

SLOW: Slow-release tablets and capsules range, e.g. Multivitamin for Her, Multi + Omega 50+, NAC + Glycine.
Melts: Oral strips that dissolve on the tongue, e.g. Vegan B12, Calm & Relaxation, Testo Power.
Marvel / Disney Melts: Kids' Melts in licensed character packs.
Pet Melts: Furlicks melts for pets (gut, hip & joint, skin & coat).
Effervescent: Fizzy tablets dissolved in water, e.g. Skin Fuel, Probiotic + Prebiotic.
Skin Fuel Pro: The Skin Fuel Pro flavoured range, tracked separately.
Hydration: Hydrasalt electrolyte packs.
Collagen / Veg Collagen: Korean marine collagen peptides / plant-based collagen builder.
Whey / Vegan / Kids Protein: Protein powders: dairy whey, plant-based, and kids' range.
Creatine: Creatine monohydrate for strength training.
Fiber: Daily Fiber drink mixes.
Shilajit: Shilajit resin and Shilajit Gold.
ACV LIQ / LIQ: Apple cider vinegar drinks / Trace Mineral Drops (liquids).
Accessories: Bottles, shakers, bags and gift boxes.

Source: JAS – Forecast X Consumption Summary. Retail (113% in Sep) and Export are excluded from all figures. September actuals are as reported on 24 Sep 2026; if they are month-to-date, September consumption % will rise once the month closes.